Method of eliciting unbiased forecasts by relating a forecaster's pay to the forecaster's contribution to a collective forecast
Patent 5608620 Issued on March 4, 1997. Estimated Expiration Date: 
February 17, 2015. Estimated Expiration Date is calculated based on simple USPTO term provisions. It does not account for terminal disclaimers, term adjustments, failure to pay maintenance fees, or other factors which might affect the term of a patent.
February 17, 2015. Estimated Expiration Date is calculated based on simple USPTO term provisions. It does not account for terminal disclaimers, term adjustments, failure to pay maintenance fees, or other factors which might affect the term of a patent.InventorApplicationNo. 390231 filed on 02/17/1995US Classes:705/1, AUTOMATED ELECTRICAL FINANCIAL OR BUSINESS PRACTICE OR MANAGEMENT ARRANGEMENT705/11, Job performance analysis705/14, Distribution or redemption of coupon, or incentive or promotion program705/35Finance (e.g., banking, investment or credit)ExaminersPrimary: Weinhardt, Robert A.Attorney, Agent or FirmInternational ClassG06F 017/60AbstractA method of eliciting an unbiased prediction of an unknown variable value from at least one of a group of forecasters. This method of compensating individual forecasters can be applied to an entire group of forecasters so as to elicit an unbiased collective prediction. The method yields nearly unbiased predictions from risk-averse forecasters whenever at least two forecasters are employed to make the same prediction. The method involves: aggregating the predictions of the forecasters, both with and without the particular prediction of the individual forecaster; computing collective losses for both of the aggregated predictions; calculating the individual forecaster's marginal contribution to predictive accuracy, based on the difference in collective losses; and computing and paying the individual forecaster's compensation as a function of the individual's marginal contribution. | |
